Scheduling note: WhatMatters is giving thanks for our readers and other blessings, and will return to your inboxes on Monday, Dec. 2.

I’m CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff, subbing for Lynn.

As a new legislative session gets underway in Sacramento next week, officials are sending mixed signals about the state of the state budget and just how ambitious California can afford to be in the coming year.

A mere week ago, the Legislature’s nonpartisan fiscal adviser released its annual outlook, projecting a small deficit that could soon grow into much larger deficits and warning that the state has no capacity for new spending commitments. Legislative leaders endorsed that message, urging restraint and a focus on protecting existing services.

But Gov. Gavin Newsom still has big, expensive ideas — especially as California gears up for another Trump administration in which the state may play captain of the resistance.

He announced on Monday that if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on plans to eliminate a federal tax credit for electric vehicles, Newsom will propose reviving an expired state rebate program. The governor previously floated creating a backup disaster relief fund in case Trump denies emergency aid to California and, unrelated to the president, doubling the state’s film and television production tax credit.

That’s potentially billions of dollars in additional spending — before we even get Newsom’s full budget pitch in January.

Funding for the electric vehicles rebate, at least, would come from California’s cap-and-trade program for large greenhouse gas emitters, a different pot of money than the general tax revenue stream that fiscal officials say is currently tapped out.

But any new programs, at a time when California is facing looming deficits, would likely have to be offset by cuts elsewhere to keep the state’s nearly $300 billion budget balanced.

While Newsom’s Department of Finance says he’s got a plan to keep everything in check — which he must share publicly by Jan. 10 — his solutions could come into conflict with the Legislature. Lawmakers, who must send Newsom a budget by June 15, will have their own priorities on which state programs to protect and, taking the governor’s lead, perhaps their own ideas for new spending.

Given that we’re months away from serious negotiations, let alone a budget deal, key players are still keeping their cards close to the vest.

Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire, a Healdsburg Democrat, told CalMatters in an interview Tuesday that his caucus “will review the multiple proposals that are being advanced” by Newsom, but he refused to say whether he is even open to creating new programs or expanding existing ones next year. Instead, he reiterated the careful and somewhat cryptic stance that he took last week.

• McGuire: “We need to be incredibly strategic on any new potential spending, and we need to err on the side of caution as we move forward into the budget negotiations.”

With fewer than 160,000 ballots left to process statewide out of more than 16 million cast, California’s long election is finally drawing to a close, three weeks after Election Day. As the results of the last remaining undecided contests become clearer, the Democratic and Republican parties have both seen promising outcomes this cycle.

Democrat Derek Tran declared victory on Monday evening in a closely-watched House race in Orange County, after an update extended his lead over Rep. Michelle Steel, the Republican incumbent, to 613 votes. (Steel has not yet conceded, but appears to be eyeing a rematch in 2026.)

It would be the second GOP seat in Congress that California Democrats flipped this year. George Whitesides already defeated Rep. Mike Garcia in the northern Los Angeles suburbs. A potential third flip awaits in the Central Valley, where Democrat Adam Gray overtook GOP Rep. John Duarte by 182 votes on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Josh Newman, a Fullerton Democrat, conceded Monday evening to Republican Assemblymember Steven Choi. Along with what appears to be two pickups of open Assembly seats previously held by Democrats, California Republicans had their best legislative election in a decade.

Notably, all three of those flips were by Asian or Latino candidates, which is poised to give the GOP a majority non-white caucus in Sacramento for the first time ever, writes CalMatters Digital Democracy reporter Ryan Sabalow. 

Could a growing appeal in diverse California communities traditionally aligned with Democrats be the party’s path back to power at the state Capitol, where Republicans remain a superminority? Experts offer their theories in Ryan’s story. 

Election results: Follow all the final California results, including on the ballot propositions and toss-up U.S. House races. And keep up with CalMatters coverage by signing up for 2024 election emails.

Attorney General Rob Bonta is getting tough on wage theft on behalf of allies in organized labor.

At a press conference in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Bonta announced a felony complaint against US Framing West, a Kentucky-based wood framing company, and two of its employees, alleging 31 counts of grand theft, payroll tax evasion, prevailing wage theft and filing false documents.

• Bonta: “For some reason, US Framing West seems to think it can operate outside the prevailing wage laws of California. I’m here with a simple message: They cannot. No company can.”

As CalMatters Inland Empire reporter Deborah Brennan explains, US Framing West secured several jobs on large construction projects in California between 2018 and 2022, subcontracting out the labor to unlicensed operators who allegedly underpaid workers by tens of thousands of dollars. Bonta also accused the company of failing to pay more than $2.5 million in state payroll taxes over that period.

Notably, the case came to the attorney general’s office through complaints from construction unions. Lorena Gonzalez, president of the California Labor Federation, appeared alongside Bonta at Tuesday’s press conference, where she called for jail time for wage theft violations.

Tending to that relationship is smart politics for Bonta, who is expected to soon enter the 2026 race for governor. In an already crowded and largely undefined field, winning the backing of organized labor could offer a significant boost.

Between the 1940s and 1960s, more than 1,000 service members and others were exposed to potentially hazardous levels of radiation at the U.S. Navy lab at Hunters Point Shipyards, reports the San Francisco Public Press. In partnership with The Guardian, the first in a six-part investigative series published Tuesday. Read it here.

I’m CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu, subbing for Lynn.

Why do California voters keep electing progressive prosecutors and keep voting them out of office?

That’s the question some criminal justice advocates are asking themselves after the defeats of two progressive district attorneys — Pamela Price in Alameda County and George Gascón in Los Angeles County — this month, California local news fellows Cayla Mihalovich and Joe Garcia report.

It wasn’t unprecedented: In 2022, Chesa Boudin was recalled as San Francisco’s district attorney amid rising crime concerns and a public desire for stricter crime policies — the same concerns that fueled the referendum on Price and Gascón this year. Gascón survived two prior recall attempts, but was ousted by Nathan Hochman, a former prosecutor who vowed to reverse Gascón’s “social experiments.”

Their losses — combined with the overwhelming approval of Proposition 36, a statewide measure to increase some theft and drug penalties — signal a shift from nearly a decade ago, when progressive prosecutors who championed alternative policies to incarceration found success across the nation. But bold reforms are often met with resistance, and in California, voters are allowed to recall elected officials early, leaving them little time to implement any policies before being ousted, some experts say.

Ultimately, district attorneys must recognize what voters need, said Dan Schnur, a University of Southern California professor.

• Schnur: “The best politicians are those who are able to adjust to and address those changes in public opinion. Those who aren’t able to adjust become former elected officials.” 

Read more on the ups and downs of progressive prosecutors from Cayla and Joe.

In other criminal justice news:

A new study this month examined “zero bail” orders — emergency edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic to set the bail amount for most misdemeanors and felonies at zero dollars — on the likelihood of rearrests. 

To catch you up: In April 2020, the state Judicial Council implemented the order to release most suspects immediately upon arrest, in hopes of preventing the virus from spreading in courts and jails. The statewide mandate only lasted two months, and voters rejected ending cash bail in November 2020. But courts in most populous counties adopted similar policies, and until July 2022, most Californians lived in counties with such a policy in place. 

Did that policy lead to more rearrests? Early on in the pandemic, yes, but that spike diminished over time, according to the new analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California. The study found no evidence that rearrests for violent felonies increased after the policy, and lower-level offenders were not more likely to be rearrested for violent felonies. 

Let’s get into some more potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump on California:

The economics of mass deportation: Trump’s promise to conduct the largest deportation operation in American history could cost billions of dollars in economic damage across a wide range of industries, as the state heavily depends on immigrant labor, reports CalMatters’ economy reporter Levi Sumagaysay. 

As of 2022, an estimated 1.8 million to 2.4 million undocumented immigrants lived in California, according to various research groups. They contributed not just their labor but tax dollars: A national study showed undocumented immigrants paying $8.5 billion in local and state taxes in the state in 2022. 

A mass deportation could mean that businesses would have to cut their workforce significantly and spend more to replace the deported with U.S.-born workers, experts say. Just the threat of Trump doing so could scare some undocumented immigrants into hiding, which could result in less earning and spending, they said. Giovanni Peri, professor of international economics at UC Davis said if undocumented immigrants “magically disappear, you’re going to erase 10% of California production.”

Read more on the impact of mass deportation on California’s economy in Levi’s story.

Abortion rules: If Trump follows the agenda laid out in Project 2025, California could lose at least $300 million a year in Medi-Cal funding for reproductive care, such as abortions, contraception and family planning, reports CalMatters investigative reporter Monique O. Madan. The state would also be required to report detailed abortion-related data to the federal government. 

Gov. Gavin Newsom, who called a special legislative session starting next week to “Trump-proof” California, traveled to Washington, D.C., after Election Day to “discuss strategies for safeguarding healthcare access,” said Anthony Cava, a spokesperson for the California Department of Health Care Services. Read more on this issue in Monique’s story.

In the city of Los Angeles, a program has moved hundreds of unhoused people into hotels and then permanent homes. 

But some other cities, including San Francisco, continue sending homeless people out of state, reports CalMatters homelessness reporter Marisa Kendall. 

A few months ago, San Francisco’s outgoing mayor, London Breed, announced that city workers must offer homeless people a free bus or train ticket to somewhere else before offering them any services. In San Jose, a $200,000 relocation program is scheduled to start in February. And social workers in various counties offer such programs on a case by case basis. 

The programs can be a game changer for those hoping to reunite with family members in another city or state, but some advocates say they could be used to force out unhoused people instead of helping them, and that there’s no way to track where they end up after they are bused away. 

• Niki Jones, executive director of the Sacramento Regional Coalition to End Homelessness: “When done in good faith, it can be an important and powerful intervention.”

Read more on the busing of homeless people in Marisa’s story. 

A destructive species of mussel has invaded California’s Delta despite state inspections of ships. Find out what went wrong from CalMatters environment reporter Alastair Bland.

In one week the Legislature will kick off a special session called by Gov. Gavin Newsom to prepare the state for President-elect Donald Trump. CalMatters reporters drill into two particular issues where California’s policies could clash with the Trump administration: public health and immigration.

RFK Jr. and vaccination: California Democratic officials are already bracing for potential public health court battles over abortion, transgender health care and Medi-Cal support. But Trump’s pick for U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services — former environmental lawyer and controversial vaccine critic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — could also affect California’s vaccination efforts.

As CalMatters health reporter Ana B. Ibarra explains, Kennedy has a history of making false claims about medicine, such as the frequently debunked assertion that vaccines are linked to autism. In 2019, he joined anti-vaccine activists in Sacramento to unsuccessfully oppose a bill to crack down on dubious medical exemptions for childhood vaccines.

These days, Kennedy has somewhat softened his mistrust of vaccines, telling NBC News earlier this month that, “If vaccines are working for somebody, I’m not going to take them away.” But if confirmed as health secretary, he could embolden anti-vaccine Californians who undermine the state’s public health policies.

As health secretary, he’d have the power to help decide whether to withhold federal funding that helps pay for states’ vaccination efforts; appoint members of an advisory committee that makes recommendations on immunization practices; and limit access to new vaccines.

Read more about Kennedy’s potential impacts on vaccine policy in Ana’s story.

Mass deportation: Advocates warn that Trump’s pledges to deport one million people a year — which the American Immigration Council estimates could cost taxpayers and the economy $88 billion annually — will threaten more than just undocumented immigrants, reports CalMatters’ Wendy Fry

Other distinct groups are at risk too: Non-citizens who have had brushes with the criminal justice system, including ones from decades ago; the roughly 1.3 million people in the U.S. who have been issued final orders of removal; and undocumented people who may live or work near these two groups.

Though California became the first “sanctuary state” to support immigrant communities during Trump’s first term, its protections aren’t as strong as some other states. State prison employees, for example, still coordinate with federal immigration agents about inmates in their custody, and Newsom’s clemency rate to pardon immigrants and shield them from deportation is lower than some previous governors.

Learn more about who is at risk under Trump’s deportation plan in Wendy’s story.

And as part of our partnership with PBS SoCal, Wendy and video strategy director Robert Meeks have a video segment on Wendy’s story on the anxieties immigrant families waiting to enter the U.S. are experiencing due to Trump’s reelection. Watch it here.

SoCalMatters airs at 5:58 p.m. weekdays on PBS SoCal.

Let’s get into some election updates:

Top two primary: Three minor political parties in California are joining forces to try to overturn the state’s top two primary system as unfair to voters. In a federal lawsuit, the Green, Libertarian and Peace and Freedom parties argue that the setup — in which the top two finishers of any party advance to the general election — has “created an unconstitutionally insurmountable barrier to general election ballot access for any minor party or independent candidate.”

The top two system, approved by voters in 2010, was first used in the 2012 elections. As Ballot Access News points out, only once has a minor party candidate made it to the general election when the Democratic and Republican parties fielded at least two candidates combined in the primary. This year, a candidate for the far-right American Independent Party, which has confused independent voters because of its name, failed to win a state Assembly seat.

On the other hand, the November ballot included eight Democrat vs. Democrat races and four Republican vs. Republican for state Assembly; three Democrat vs. Democrat contests and one Republican vs. Republican for state Senate; and three Dem vs. Dem races for U.S. House. 

Ballot count: Nearly 16 million ballots have been counted for the November election, but as of Sunday, there were still more than 202,000 left to process, according to the Secretary of State’s office. 

Lake County is a laggard: It has finished 16,500 ballots, but has 10,800 remaining. Its top elections official defends the slow count, a cause for complaint every election. 

• Maria Valadez, Lake County registrar, to the Los Angeles Times: “The state gave us a deadline, we meet the deadline. I just don’t understand, why do we need to rush?”

She’s right that county election officials have until Dec. 5 to finish counting and certify the results. But candidates and voters might disagree: Nearly three weeks after Election Day, two U.S. House and five legislative races are still uncalled by the Associated Press. U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley and Assemblymember Joe Patterson, both Rocklin Republicans whose reelections were called the morning after Election Day, say they’ll introduce legislation in Congress and the Legislature, respectively, to require faster counting.

From CalMatters economy reporter Levi Sumagaysay:

California’s Insurance Department is rolling out the last regulation in its attempt to fix the home and fire insurance market: Allow insurance companies to factor in their reinsurance costs when setting premiums.

The department is inviting public comment on Commissioner Ricardo Lara’s proposed regulation, including a virtual meeting on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m.

Reinsurance is what insurers buy to insure themselves against risk. The department said in its public notice that allowing for the cost of reinsurance in rate-making “would promote insurer solvency and market stability in addition to providing necessary insurance coverage to protect consumers and businesses.” 

For the past couple of years, Californians have been dealing with higher property insurance costs as insurers have stopped writing new policies in the state, citing increased wildfire risk and inflation.

The department also said insurers that want to incorporate reinsurance costs into their premiums would “commit to increasing coverage in wildfire distressed areas” — a similar requirement for insurers that want to also use catastrophe modeling, another regulation that’s part of Lara’s plan to solve the state’s insurance problems. The new regulations are supposed to take effect early next year.

In other insurance news: The Little Hoover Commission, the state’s independent oversight agency, last week unveiled its recommendations for fixing the insurance crisis. The recommendations include allowing insurers to use catastrophe modeling and factoring in reinsurance costs, just like in Lara’s plan. 

But the commission also lambasted Lara for failing to show up for its hearings: “We repeatedly invited Insurance Commissioner Lara or someone from his office to share with us the department’s plans to address this crisis. Without explanation, our invitations were ignored.”

• Gabriel Sanchez, spokesperson for Lara: “It’s a strength of the report that its recommendations echo and endorse Commissioner Lara’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy.”

California plans to increase electric motorcycle sales so that 50% of motorcycles sold would be zero-emissions by 2035. CalMatters’ Alejandra Reyes-Velarde and Robert Meeks have a PBS SoCal video segment on this goal’s potential pitfalls. Watch it here.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the Racial Justice Act into law in September 2020, following the police murder of George Floyd. For the first time, defendants can put bias from any brush with the criminal legal system — from arrest to sentencing — on the stand.

However, a Garrison Project and CalMatters analysis of the Racial Justice Act found only about a dozen successful cases in which judges took action on racial bias in the legal process, an indicator of the “uphill battle,” as one attorney called it, to convince judges to bring these challenges.

The state, home to the largest criminal legal system in the U.S., does not keep data on Racial Justice Act cases. There’s no courthouse code for a motion made under the act, leaving no systematic way to track cases. Successes tend to spread by word of mouth, while the details of rejections are buried in court filings. In the absence of comprehensive data, the Garrison Project spoke with more than 40 attorneys, legal experts, and advocates, across more than a dozen counties to understand its effectiveness.

The results so far are mixed. A review of court documents, appellate rulings, and interviews with defense attorneys indicate the true power of a Racial Justice Act proceeding: the ability to add evidence of bias to the court record through motions.

• Elizabeth Lashley-Haynes, a deputy public defender for Los Angeles County: “You don’t know the importance of just going into the court and fighting it and having these conversations. It’s incredibly meaningful to be able to articulate and say to a judge, ‘No, this officer doing that is biased.’”

Read more on the Racial Justice Act in the story by Sean Kevin Campbell, a contributing reporter with The Garrison Project.

Californians consistently rank jobs and the economy as among the most pressing issues facing the state. And while the tech and entertainment industries grab a lot of Gov. Newsom’s attention, workers outside the Bay Area and Los Angeles are getting some focus, too.

As CalMatters economy reporter Levi Sumagaysay explains, the governor was in Fresno Thursday promoting a 20-year economic development plan submitted by counties in the Central Valley. The 502-page plan outlines how the region proposes to boost its agricultural industry and prepare for climate-related jobs. 

The Central Valley is one of 13 regions throughout the state working on these plans. In March, Newsom announced $182 million in grants to put the plans into action. In the Central Valley, where 1 in 5 people live below the poverty line, counties are asking for $58 billion in public and private investments by 2045, according to an August draft of its plan. 

The governor is expected to release a statewide blueprint in January based on the other 12 regional plans.

Read more about Newsom’s vow to leave no region behind in Levi’s story.

Trump prep: Newsom also said that the special legislative session he called is needed because even when he got along with President-elect Donald Trump during his first term, he still assaulted California on policy and money.

“We have the receipts,” Newsom said in response to reporters’ questions.

And Trump is proving with his appointments and rhetoric that he’s “hellbent” on doing more when he returns to the White House in January, the governor said. Specifically, Newsom said he’s concerned about the “chilling effect” of Trump’s mass deportation threats on legal immigrants and mixed status families.

It’s been three days since California’s first major storm of the rainy season sloshed ashore and hopefully everyone is staying safe and dry. (My windowsill leaked rainwater Wednesday, causing a small puddle to soak my living room rug, so that’s where I’m at.) 

This atmospheric river, intensified by a bomb cyclone from the Pacific Northwest, is expected to keep battering the West Coast into early next week. Flood warnings are in effect in parts of Northern California through Friday, and heavy snow is expected in the Sierra. The storm’s powerful winds have caused power outages and knocked down trees. But as of late Thursday, no major flooding in California had been reported.

But if there are devastating floods again, will aid quickly reach those in need?

Not if you look at what happened to families in Planada, a Latino-majority town in Merced County devastated by flooding in January 2023. 

As CalMatters’ Felicia Mello documents, only about $4 million of the $20 million in relief has been spent, most in payments to affected residents.

It took months for the state to send the money to Planada. And once it arrived, there was tension between residents who wanted direct aid and local officials who wanted to use some to fix infrastructure. Many residents work in low-wage agricultural jobs and are undocumented, which means they aren’t eligible for federal emergency aid. 

Read more on flood relief in Planada, as well as Pajaro in Monterey County, in Felicia’s story.

As California public schools struggle to bring student attendance back up to pre-pandemic levels, the latest state report offers a glimmer of hope.

In the new California School Dashboard — the state’s key data source that provides a snapshot of how K-12 students are faring — absenteeism dropped to 20% in 2023-24, which is better than the 30% rate in 2021-22, writes CalMatters K-12 education reporter Carolyn Jones. 

It’s evidence that schools’ efforts to reduce absenteeism are working, but it’s not as low as the pre-pandemic rate of 12%.

The dashboard, released Thursday by the California Department of Education, also shows that the high school graduation rate ticked up (86.4% from 86.2%), and suspension rates dropped slightly (from 3.6% to 3.3%).

But there is one cause for concern: While slightly more students are graduating high school, only about half of these graduates meet the admissions criteria from the University of California and California State University, and the number of those who are eligible dipped slightly from 45.2% last year to 44.9%.

Learn more about the dashboard’s latest findings in Carolyn’s story.

Speaking of graduation rates: Cal State reported this week that the university has fallen short of its goal to graduate 40% of its students who start as freshmen. As CalMatters’ Mikhail Zinshteyn explains, officials reported that the four-year graduation rate hit 36.2% this spring. While an all-time high, it’s still short of Cal State’s 2025 target. Graduation rates among Latino and Black students also hit well below the goals. Among transfer students who come from community colleges and graduate within two years, however, Cal State is closer to its 45% target, with 44% graduating.

As California public universities try to balance campus safety with students’ right to protest, community colleges are squaring off in court with students and staff who argue that the schools are violating their freedom of speech, explains CalMatters community college reporter Adam Echelman.

Since 2020, there have been at least seven lawsuits filed by professors or students that allege colleges’ efforts to promote diversity, equity and inclusion violate their free speech rights.

In 2021, a Madera Community College professor sued the district when the college disciplined him for using the pronouns “Do, Re, Mi” after he attended a presentation about gender pronouns. That same year, Juliette Colunga, then a student at Clovis Community College, sued after the school removed anti-communist posters put up by Colunga and other students and restricted the display of their anti-abortion posters.

Battling these lawsuits can get pricey: The district overseeing Clovis College agreed to pay Colunga and others a total of $330,000 in a settlement. And in another lawsuit involving the firing of a Moreno Valley College professor who said conversion therapy should be allowed, the district paid nearly $900,000 in legal costs even though the case was dismissed.

But for Colunga, who is now at a private, four-year Christian college in Santa Clarita, her lawsuit was “never about making money.”

• Colunga: “It was not only about making change, but also about ensuring that change remains for future students.” 

Learn more about community colleges’ free speech battles in Adam’s story.

In other higher ed news: To avoid shutting down Cal Maritime, California’s smallest public university, Cal State leaders are poised today to approve merging it with Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, report CalMatters’ Mikhail Zinshteyn and Jeremy Garza. 

Cal Maritime’s graduates lead commercial ships that move cargo or U.S. military supplies around the world. But its enrollment has plummeted in recent years, from 1,107 in 2016-17 to 761 last fall.

Merging with highly selective Cal Poly, which is 250 miles away, is expected to cost at least $5 million a year for the next seven years, but that’s far less than keeping Cal Maritime separate at its reduced size.

Read more about the merger in Mikhail and Jeremy’s story.

Though the state is expected to spend more next year, higher than expected revenues — mostly driven by wealthier Californians playing the stock market — mean that California’s budget is projected to remain “roughly balanced,” the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office says.

As CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff explains, the office released on Wednesday its initial outlook for 2025-26 that estimates a $2 billion budget hole, which could be plugged with some “minor” solutions.

California is forecast to collect $7 billion more than anticipated in taxes due to stock market gains. But the state also plans to spend about $10 billion more than planned in the current state budget due to school funding, wildfires and higher reimbursement rates for doctors who treat Medi-Cal patients.

While the short-term outlook isn’t as dire as the two-year, $56 billion shortfall that the Legislature and Gov. Gavin Newsom dealt with earlier this year, the analyst’s office projects that the state will face deficits of about $30 billion by 2028-29, and warned the Legislature against major new spending. 

Both Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate leader Mike McGuire said they plan to be cautious.

One big question mark: The analysis doesn’t account for possible budget impacts by the incoming Donald Trump presidency. Newsom said he is developing a contingency plan for disaster aid in case Trump withholds federal funds. The governor also called for a special session starting in December to fund possible legal battles.

Meanwhile, GOP Assembly leader James Gallagher and Sen. Brian Dahle used the analyst’s report to accuse Democrats of overspending for years and being unwilling to make tough budget decisions.

Read more about California’s budget outlook in Alexei’s story.

In other Capitol news: The final statewide ballot measure was called Wednesday by the Associated Press: Proposition 34 passed, and it will make it much more difficult for the AIDS Healthcare Foundation to finance ballot measures, such as Prop. 33, the local rent control measure that voters rejected. If you’re keeping score, that means six of the 10 measures passed and four failed.

Like so many issues, President-elect Trump is promising big changes on artificial intelligence. So will state lawmakers try to “Trump-proof” California on AI as well?

Maybe not right away, Alex Shultz reports for CalMatters.

This year, California lawmakers took a selective approach to regulating AI. Gov. Newsom signed at least 17 AI bills, but he also vetoed an expansive proposal strongly opposed by tech companies that would have required AI tools to be tested for catastrophic harm.

In contrast, Congress hasn’t passed meaningful AI legislation. And Trump has pledged to repeal President Joe Biden’s executive order that urges tech companies to put up certain guardrails for AI.

Though Newsom has cautioned against overregulating the industry, things could change under Trump: His promises of mass deportations, for example, could be assisted by the extensive use of AI tools. A Republican-led Congress could also pass looser AI laws that preempt California’s rules.

Learn more about California AI regulation and Trump in Alex’s story.

Los Angeles’ Inside Safe program has moved more than 3,200 unhoused residents from encampments to hotel rooms. CalMatters’ Marisa Kendall and video strategy director Robert Meeks have a video segment on Marisa’s story on the challenges that remain for the program, as part of our partnership with PBS SoCal. Watch it here.

SoCalMatters airs at 5:58 p.m. weekdays on PBS SoCal.

The complaints and questions surface after every election: It takes California way too long to count all the votes. It’s unfair to candidates and their supporters in close races to make them wait. Is there something nefarious going on?

It’s all happening again, further eroding public confidence in elections: In California’s 45th Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Michelle Steel and Democratic challenger Derek Tran are neck and neck, with Tran leading by a mere 314 votes as of late Tuesday. But because Steel was leading by more than 11,000 votes days after the election, some congressional Republicans are decrying the flip as evidence of Democrats “stealing the seat.”

And while Assemblymember Joe Patterson easily won his bid for reelection, the Rocklin Republican is taking issue with being sworn in for his second term on Dec. 2, three days before county elections officials must certify the results and nearly two weeks before the Secretary of State’s deadline. 

In 2022 Christy Holstege went through the Assembly’s freshmen orientation, only to find out later that her opponent, Republican Assemblymember Greg Wallis of Rancho Mirage, won after all the votes were tallied.

Now, their rematch is one of five legislative races that still haven’t been called — and one of the contests being tracked by the California Voter Foundation. Its goal: To rebuild public trust in the vote count by showing which candidate is leading in close contests day by day, explains CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu.

Its tracker provides updates on 11 competitive U.S. House races and seven state legislative races. It also tracks candidates’ vote share, and both the number of votes that are counted and remain uncounted. 

• Kim Alexander, foundation president: “If someone came along later and said, ‘Something hinky is going on here,’ there would be a reliable source of information people could turn to to see how the vote count evolved over time.”

The reasons why California takes so long to count votes are varied. But it doesn’t always have to be this way, says Alexander. For instance, the state could allow voters to opt out of vote-by-mail; provide more staffing and better equipment to county election officials; and invest in more voter outreach that emphasizes submitting ballots sooner. 

Read more on the foundation’s tracker in Stella’s story.

Prop. 32 defeated: The statewide ballot measure to increase the hourly minimum wage from $16 to $18 failed, with 50.8% of voters rejecting the proposal. AP called the contest Tuesday, a day after opponents declared a “historic” victory given previous successful attempts at raising the wage. But the Yes on Prop. 32 campaign said its efforts “laid essential groundwork for future wage advocacy” and that the “fight for fair wages is far from over.”

Voter turnout: While votes are still being tallied, it appears that turnout this year has dropped from the 2020 peak, closer to the average for presidential elections in California. Based on current counts of about 16 million votes cast, that would mean as many as 1.7 million fewer than in November 2020, according to an analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California. That would be a nearly 10% drop in turnout, but the total number of votes cast would still be far more than the 14.6 million in 2016 and 13.2 million in 2012. 

CalMatters has been doing a series of stories on new programs, apprenticeships and other efforts to improve job training. Tuesday, CalMatters economy reporter Levi Sumagaysay moderated a panel at the James Irvine Foundation in San Francisco.

Panelists discussed workforce development in the construction and semiconductor industries. They also talked about the role apprenticeship programs play to prepare young students for well-paying careers, and providing workers with new skills.

• Adele Burnes, deputy chief at the California Division of Apprenticeship Standards: “Our economy is shifting so rapidly and it’s not sufficient to just say, ‘This is my career, this is what I’m going to do for my entire life.’ … We’re watching it happen right now with the disruption of AI into tech employment, into professional services employment. It’s happening right now.”

Speaking of workers: The union representing 37,000 service and patient care workers at the University of California plans to kick off its two-day strike today, affecting all 10 campuses and five medical centers. AFSCME Local 3299 accuses the UC of unfair bargaining and increasing health care costs for workers.

• Michael Avant, union president, in a statement: “By failing to meet its most basic legal responsibilities to the dedicated professionals who clean its facilities, serve students food, and treat its patients, UC has left workers with no choice but to exercise their legal right to strike.” 

The university denies that it negotiated in bad faith, arguing that it proposed to increase union members’ pay by an average of 26% over five years. It calls the strike a “premature” and “disheartening” development. 

Another strike of healthcare research and technical workers will also take place at UC San Francisco.

State public health officials are on alert after a child in Alameda County tested positive for bird flu, writes CalMatters health reporter Kristen Hwang.

The child had mild upper respiratory symptoms, and health investigators suspect they came in contact with wild birds (the main carriers of bird flu). While this could be California’s first known human bird flu case that does not appear to involve contact with infected cattle, experts stress that the risk to the general public remains low. 

A bird flu outbreak is currently sweeping through hundreds of California poultry and dairy farms. As of now, there are 26 confirmed human cases of bird flu — primarily among farmworkers in the Central Valley. The virus has also shown up in 17 wastewater systems.

Still, if you’re not a poultry or dairy worker, your chances of getting bird flu are slim.

• Tomás Aragón, state public health officer, in a statement: “We don’t think the child was infectious — and no human-to-human spread of bird flu has been documented in any country for more than 15 years.”

Read more about the new bird flu case in Kristen’s story.

It has been nearly three years since Gov. Gavin Newsom released his tax returns, despite his campaign promises to be the first California governor to release his tax returns every year in office. Find out why Newsom’s finances are being put under the microscope from CalMatters Capitol reporter Alexei Koseff.

Two weeks after Election Day, the results on two of the 10 statewide propositions remain undecided. But opponents and supporters aren’t waiting around.

Prop. 32 opponents declare victory: Despite no official call by the Associated Press, opponents said voters delivered a “historic” rejection of the statewide ballot measure to raise the hourly minimum wage from $16 to $18.

The No on Prop. 32 campaign, which is made up of a coalition of business groups, noted how previous efforts to raise the minimum wage at the state and local level succeeded. (In 2023, lawmakers passed two laws to raise the hourly wages of fast food and health care workers.) The campaign also said that Prop. 32 “barely passed” in coastal communities, which typically have higher local minimum wage ordinances due to their higher cost of living.

• Jot Condie, president and CEO of the California Restaurant Association, in a statement: “It is important that policymakers hear the message being sent by the voters — stop using California consumers as guinea pigs for public policy experiments that make life more expensive for everyone.” 

As of late Monday, the measure was trailing 50.8% to 49.2%, and opponents said there aren’t enough votes left to flip the result. But Prop. 32 supporters are saying it ain’t over ’til it’s over. As of late Monday, there were about 695,000 ballots left to count statewide.

• Angelo Greco, spokesperson for the Yes on Prop. 32 campaign, in a statement: “As the last 25 years have taught us, it’s unwise to declare victory prematurely. When the Associated Press, which we all can regard as independent minded, declares an outcome of Prop. 32, then we will assess.”

Prop. 34 target concedes defeat: Prop. 34 was winning 50.8% to 49.2% as of late Monday, but also hadn’t been called by the AP. The measure, which would require certain health care providers to spend most of their revenue from a federal prescription drug discount program on patient care, targets the AIDS Healthcare Foundation for pushing local rent control. It sponsored Prop. 33, which also failed, and the foundation’s president conceded defeat Friday, reports The Sacramento Bee. 

In more election news:

• Voter ID: Huntington Beach notched a win in its fight against the state to implement its local voter identification requirement: An Orange County judge ruled last week that the charter change approved by voters in March can go into effect in 2026. The state sued the city in April, arguing that the law disenfranchised voters and violated California election code. Lawmakers also passed legislation in September banning local voter ID requirements. The state has until Dec. 5 to file an amended petition.

• Vince Fong: U.S. Rep. Vince Fong resigned from the state Legislature after his successful bid for Congress — but not before filing for reelection as an Assemblymember. Despite publicly endorsing his “opponent,” the Bakersfield Republican “won.” So taxpayers will have to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for a special election to fill a seat Fong no longer wants (and can’t legally occupy). Read more about the political pickle from CalMatters Digital Democracy reporter Ryan Sabalow.

The amount spent on lobbying state legislators could be on track to hit a record this year, with tech and oil companies leading the way, writes CalMatters data reporter Jeremia Kimelman.

A CalMatters analysis of state data found that in just the first nine months of 2024, labor unions, businesses and nonprofits spent $420 million to influence lawmakers — compared to $484 million in all of 2023 and $443 million in all of 2022. 

In the third quarter of 2024 alone, lobbying money reached a record of nearly $168 million, exceeding the previous quarter of $131 million. Between July 1 and Sept. 30, Google poured in the most, spending $10.7 million — including about $9.75 million to two industry groups to successfully oppose two bills that sought to fund local journalism. 

The second biggest spender during the third quarter: The Western States Petroleum Association, at $10.1 million. It lobbied on 25 bills during the regular session and the special session called by Gov. Gavin Newsom this fall to curb gas price spikes. The session resulted in legislation requiring oil refineries to maintain a minimum amount of fuel stock.

Read more about lobbyist spending this year in Jeremia’s story.

California is one of 24 states that allow transgender students to play on sports teams that match their gender identity. But as members of the LGBTQ+ community prepare for the incoming Donald Trump presidency’s impact on health care for transgender residents, athletes in California are being swept into the growing national movement to ban transgender players from women’s college sports.

As Desmond Meagley and Amy Moore of CalMatters’ College Journalism Network explain, four teams in the Mountain West Conference this fall forfeited games against San Jose State University’s volleyball team after Brooke Slusser, a San Jose State player from Texas, publicly identified a teammate as transgender. 

Slusser joined other female athletes in a lawsuit against the NCAA to oppose its policy allowing transgender women to compete against them. And last week, players from the forfeited universities filed a separate lawsuit against California State University officials, the NCAA and the conference commissioner for the same reason.

For LGBTQ+ advocates, the issue is about more than just access to team sports: Transgender youth have worse mental health outcomes in states with anti-trans laws, and states that ban trangender students from playing with their peers have fewer girls playing school sports overall. 

• Bonnie Sugiyama, director of San Jose State’s PRIDE Center: “To restrict people based on their identity … just because you don’t know where to put them? That’s not really an acceptable response.”

Learn more about California’s transgender athletes in Desmond and Amy’s story.

Nonprofits that provide vital homelessness services say they must wait weeks, sometimes months, for government reimbursements — compelling them to scale back their services. CalMatters’ Marisa Kendall and video strategy director Robert Meeks have a video segment on this issue, as part of our partnership with PBS SoCal. Watch it here.

SoCalMatters airs at 5:58 p.m. weekdays on PBS SoCal.

A major rule change under the Biden administration allows certain undocumented immigrants to purchase subsidized health plans through California’s insurance marketplace. But with a Republican-led effort to halt this expansion, and President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge of mass deportations, California health leaders worry that the gains the state achieved in coverage could be undone, writes CalMatters health reporter Ana B. Ibarra.

California is home to about 1.8 million undocumented immigrants. Though legislation to grant them unemployment and home ownership assistance failed this year, the state recently expanded Medi-Cal, its health insurance program for low-income residents, to undocumented immigrants of all ages. 

Since November, people who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children by family and who are also protected from deportation by the Obama-era policy known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), can purchase health insurance through Covered California. 

Before this month, DACA recipients were only allowed to get health insurance through their employer. And with the rule change, Covered California estimates about 40,000 more DACA recipients are eligible for marketplace coverage this enrollment season — providing relief for freelancers, self-employed workers or those who have no other means of health coverage.

But 19 Republican attorneys general from states including Alabama, Florida, Kansas and Texas are challenging the new benefit. They argue that it encourages illegal immigration and creates “additional administrative and resource burden” in states that run their own insurance marketplaces. California joined 18 other states filing a brief in defense of the expansion, and the case is still pending.

Meanwhile, Trump has vowed to conduct mass deportations once in office and his administration could potentially roll back other protections for undocumented workers. 

Trump and congressional Republicans could also opt to not renew federal subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, which expire in 2025 and provide assistance for middle-class families. If Congress doesn’t act, an estimated 4 million people in the U.S. would lose their coverage the following year, raising concerns among experts that the number of uninsured Californians will rise. (About 500,000 people in the U.S. have DACA status, and one report found that 20% of those surveyed are uninsured.)

Despite the uncertain future, Covered California officials and immigration attorneys say DACA grantees who are eligible for health insurance should act as soon as possible.

• Jessica Altman, executive director of Covered California: “Coverage is here right now. So if you need to go to the doctor, if you’ve been putting off care that you need, if you’ve never had the opportunity to get your preventive care, you can do that right now. Let’s not let fears about the future prevent what can happen in the here and now and what you can have access to.”

Open enrollment began Nov. 1 and ends Jan. 31. To have coverage by Jan. 1, people must sign up by Dec. 31.

Read more about California DACA recipients’ health coverage in Ana’s story.

While the focus since Election Day has been on statewide ballot measures (two are still undecided) and toss-up congressional races, California Democrats are on the verge of securing as big a supermajority in the Legislature as they already had — and with it the power to pass budgets without any Republican votes and control the flow of legislation. 

In the state Senate, Democrats held 31 of the 40 Senate seats heading into the election, with 20 seats on the ballot. With one race undecided, Democrats will control at least 30 seats, three more than a supermajority.

In the state Assembly, Democrats had 62 of the 80 Assembly seats before the election. With four contests still up in the air, Democrats will win at least 60 seats, six more than a supermajority. Democrats have enjoyed supermajorities since the 2018 election.

But the people matter as much as the numbers. One new Republican who will be sworn next month is Carl DeMaio, a talk show host, former San Diego city councilmember and full-on Trump supporter whom establishment Republicans failed to defeat. 

• DeMaio, to Politico: “I’m going to be pushing the Republican Party in a whole different direction when it comes to environmental issues, housing issues, social issues. If we want to be a majority in California, which is absolutely possible, we have to transform.”

He is vowing to “shake up our state’s broken political system,” and maybe he’ll be as much of a firebrand in the Assembly as Corona Republican Bill Essayli, who has won reelection. On the last night of the legislative session, Essayli shouted and banged on his desk when Democrats shut him down and accused them of being an “enemy of democracy.”

For the record: This item has been updated with the correct number of Assembly races that haven’t been called.

Trump and congressional Republicans’ pledges to chip away at the Affordable Care Act could not only threaten DACA recipients, but health care coverage for other Californians as well, CalMatters health reporter Kristen Hwang explains.

The federal government spends more than three times what the state spends on California health care programs: $117 billion to support Medi-Cal and the Affordable Care Act, compared to $35 billion from California’s general fund for all state health spending.

Trump and congressional Republicans have signaled that they don’t support renewing federal subsidies for the Affordable Care Act that expire next year. Before the push to lower health care premiums under the Biden administration, Californians paid at least 18% of their income on health insurance. Federal assistance capped that expense to 8.5%.

• Rachel Linn Gish, communications director for Health Access California: “You’re talking about a world where we’re doubling how much people pay.”

Reproductive rights is another health care policy that could be jeopardized. Strengthening abortion protections is often cited by California Democratic officials as one effort in “Trump-proofing” the state, and Assemblymember Mia Bonta, an Oakland Democrat and chairperson of the health committee, said she plans to introduce a number of bills on the first day of the legislative session in January to further protect abortions.

Learn more about how Trump could impact California’s health care policies in Kristen’s story.

California is still counting votes (1.5 million yet to go), but some noteworthy trends are becoming clearer: 

Latino voters: Although the extent is still uncertain, polls show that support for President-elect Donald Trump among Latinos has grown nationwide. In California, a CalMatters analysis found that a larger share of votes in at least nine of the state’s 12 Latino-majority counties went to Trump this year compared to 2020.

As CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu explains, the shift by Latino voters may have a lot to do with economic concerns. Mike Madrid, a longtime GOP consultant, said that Democrats have been slowly losing Latino support since 2012, and they should consider the election a “five-alarm fire.”

But some experts and California Democrats don’t view Trump’s victory as a sweeping rebuke of the party. In some of the state’s congressional toss-up races, for example, Democratic candidates appear to be outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris. Rather than voting for Republicans, they say, voters just wanted to oust incumbents. 

“What you want to call a rightward shift,” said Democrat Adam Gray, who is in a tight race for California’s 13th Congressional District, “I would call a rejection of more of the same.”

Read more about California’s Latino voters in Stella’s story.

More voters: While Harris lost to Trump overwhelmingly in the Electoral College, she has won more votes in her home state (8.4 million as of Thursday) than Barack Obama did in 2008 when he won the presidency. 

That’s largely a result, however, of more registered voters in California: 22.6 million this year, compared to 17.3 million in 2008. The state has made it easier to register and to vote in recent years; 84% of all eligible voters are registered, up from 75% in 2008.

Harris is at 59% of the vote statewide so far, compared to 61% for Obama in 2008 against Republican John McCain. In the total number of votes, she is also running slightly ahead of Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, who has won the U.S. Senate race. But that’s because of those who voted for president, but skipped the U.S. Senate race.

Congressional delegation: California went into the election with 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans in the U.S. House and two Democrats in the Senate. After the millions of dollars spent and all the campaigning and ads, the party split could be almost identical. With two House races still undecIded but the Republicans leading narr0wly, there could be as many as 11 Republicans representing the state in the House as part of the narrow GOP majority. California’s two Democrats in the U.S. Senate will be in the minority.

Election results: Keep up with all the latest California results, including on the ballot propositions. And follow CalMatters coverage by signing up for 2024 election emails.

California’s Democratic leaders from Gov. Gavin Newsom on down have been publicly preparing for Trump’s second term in the Oval Office. Newsom has called a special session and Attorney General Rob Bonta is preparing more lawsuits. Trump’s nomination Thursday of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who ran for president this year and has espoused widely debunked anti-vaccination views — as health secretary is also raising blood pressure among Democrats.

• Assembly Health Chairperson Mia Bonta, an Oakland Democrat, in a statement: “Americans deserve better than someone who has only made a name for himself by spreading conspiracy theories and pushing back against some of humanity’s greatest public health achievements.”

But what do the state’s Republican leaders want?

Thursday, Assembly GOP leader James Gallagher of Chico shared a letter he sent to Trump (at Mar-a-Lago) asking for his help: “Many Californians believe your leadership can help us tackle issues that have plagued California for too long.”

Gallagher cites crime, gas prices, housing, utility costs and wildfires.

• The letter: “While Governor Gavin Newsom wants to ‘Trump-proof’ California, legislative Republicans want to partner with you to pursue real solutions. We have been fighting tirelessly to fix California, but we need your support. Californians deserve real progress, not political showdowns that ultimately cost taxpayers and distract from the urgent needs of our state and nation.”

From CalMatters higher education reporter Mikhail Zinshteyn:

Leaders of the University of California on Thursday decried the system’s antisemitic culture while discussing an October report chronicling anti-Jewish and anti-Israeli incidents at UCLA.

While scores of campuses across the country convulsed with protest over the war in Gaza, UCLA became a poster child for violence after a pro-Israeli mob attacked a pro-Palestinian encampment in late April. That and other incidents prompted the UC system to reiterate policies banning encampments on campus.

“There is a perniciousness of the antisemitism that we’ve seen on our campuses and in broader society that is not paralleled by anything else today,” said John A. Pérez, a former speaker of the California Assembly and outgoing UC Board of Regents member.

Another regent, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, said the UC must take seriously “the concerns of Jewish students for their safety as scapegoats for a war happening overseas” that “by virtue of their ethnicity or their faith, are being held responsible for things that they should not be held responsible for.”

The October report followed two others that faulted UCLA’s administration for maintaining a “consistent anti-Palestinian, anti-Muslim, and Arab racism and pro-Zionist bias.” In one of those reports, the task force authors wrote that pro-Palestinian students used peaceful means to highlight the suffering in Gaza as the Israeli military waged its campaign against Hamas, the governing body of Gaza that invaded Israel last Oct. 7.

Those students “faced horrific physical and psychological violence for protesting non-violently,” the May report said. A June report criticized UCLA’s leadership for “the militarization” of UCLA.

The antisemitism report, which surveyed more than 400 students, found that almost half of the undergraduate respondents said teaching assistants “engaged in behaviors that included offensive comments, attacks, or discrimination, and the majority reported that their peers engaged in these behaviors.”

After San Francisco Unified announced it intended to close or merge nearly a dozen schools, outcry from parents, staff and the mayor pressured the district to pull back last month, and its superintendent resigned. 

But are school closures a reasonable solution to shrinking budgets and enrollment? 

As CalMatters’ Carolyn Jones reports, the number of students enrolled in the state’s K-12 public schools has dropped by 7% over the past two decades. The pandemic, lower birth dates, decreasing rates of immigration and families moving out of California all play a part in the decline.

Closing under-enrolled schools can save districts money by cutting facility and payroll costs. That frees up money for teacher raises or improving academic and extracurricular programs at existing schools.

But school closures — which disproportionately affect low-income and Black communities — are deeply disruptive to students. Instead, the California Teachers Association says, districts should consider smaller classes, push for more state funding, and partner with community organizations to use buildings. 

• David Goldberg, union president: “Closing schools is the last thing we should be doing. Schools are a safety net in so many communities. … Disrupting that is a setback that is hard to undo.” 

Read more about the debate over school closures in Carolyn’s story.

The incoming Trump administration will likely mean huge changes across a wide range of policies in California. CalMatters reporters are talking to officials, experts and advocates about many of them: 

• Public education: If President-elect Donald Trump’s pledges to deport undocumented immigrants and withhold funds to schools that recognize transgender students come to pass, they could have major impacts on student absenteeism, anxiety and bullying, explains CalMatters K-12 education reporter Carolyn Jones. During the first Trump presidency, for example, attendance and academic performance of Latino students dropped significantly in areas affected by severe immigration enforcement. Trump also wants to shut down the U.S. Department of Education (a move that could mean a $7.9 billion loss of federal funding for California schools), eliminate teacher tenure and implement performance-based pay.

• Housing: CalMatters’ Felicia Mello reports that for some of the state’s most vocal housing advocates, the outlook under Trump appears grim. Mass deportations and higher tariffs could result in fewer workers to build homes and rising costs for imported construction materials, such as steel. Trump will also make it likely harder for immigrants and other low-income Californians to access subsidized housing and secure mortgages. But his fondness for deregulation could also result in easing rules for housing construction.

• Offshore wind: While repeating unsubstantiated claims that wind turbines cause cancer and kill whales, Trump has vowed to undo a bipartisan federal law that provides federal money for states to invest and develop offshore wind farms — potentially curtailing California’s renewable energy goals, writes CalMatters environment reporter Julie Cart.

Reproductive rights advocates and Democratic leaders are also concerned that a Trump presidency will severely restrict abortion access. The Markup, which is part of CalMatters, has a new guide for abortion seekers to protect their privacy and avoid misinformation. 

Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom, wrapping up his D.C. visit, huddled Wednesday with Democratic members of Congress. He told reporters they talked about securing disaster funding and clean air and health care waivers, as well as getting on the same page before the special session he called, including more lawsuits against the Trump administration. 

• Newsom, in a statement: “California is working closely with the White House over the next two months to deliver the critical protections and resources our communities need.”

CalMatters events: We also took part in two events Wednesday on pressing issues facing the state. Reporter Jocelyn Wiener moderated a panel in Long Beach on how well California’s mental health parity law is working.

• Elissa Feld, director of policy at County Behavioral Health Directors Association: “California is embarking on addressing some really bold behavioral health goals, including decreasing deaths by suicide, increasing quality of life, decreasing untreated behavioral health conditions. … However, we don’t have commercial plans at the table and they insure over half of California’s population right now.”

Also, CalMatters columnist Jim Newton interviewed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass about her efforts on homelessness. The next event is Nov. 19 in San Francisco on workforce training (register here).

If — and that’s a big if — Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run for California governor, she could quickly jump to the front of the crowded field for 2026.

That’s according to a new poll in which 46% of registered voters — and 72% of Democrats — said they would be likely or very likely to support her. Harris, who represented California in the U.S. Senate and was elected attorney general, has the advantage of name recognition.

The poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, was conducted last month, before last week’s election in which she lost to Trump.

Without Harris as a choice, the poll found U.S. Rep. Katie Porter leads among other declared or potential candidates, at 13% as either the first or second choice of likely voters. Porter, who is giving up her seat after failing in her U.S. Senate bid this year, said last week that she’s “thinking” about running for governor, but has no timetable to make a decision.

Two Republicans appear next in the survey: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12% and state Sen. Brian Dahle, who ran unsuccessfully against Newsom in 2022, at 11%. Then, three Democrats are bunched at 7%: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and U.S.Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. 

But more than half of likely voters said they were undecided in the very early poll, with the primary not until June 2026.

Election update: The AP declared Wednesday night that Republicans will keep control of the U.S. House and late wins in toss-up races in California helped put the GOP over the finish line. The party will be in charge of both houses of Congress and the presidency next year.  

If you’re a non-California resident planning to start at the University of California, tuition is likely to get more expensive.

UC regents are expected to vote today on a proposed tuition hike for next fall’s new undergraduate nonresidents, writes CalMatters higher education reporter Mikhail Zinshteyn. Undergraduates pay tuition and a systemwide fee, but out-of-state students also pay a supplemental fee. That fee was already going to be raised by $1,194 next fall, but the proposal bumps that up to a $3,402 increase.

In total, new nonresidents — who make up about 15% of all new UC undergraduates — would pay about $52,500 in tuition next fall, compared to the roughly $48,600 that new nonresident students pay now. 

The university faces a $500 million budget gap next summer, and a multitude of planned construction projects through the end of decade costing an estimated $30 billion. The tuition hike is anticipated to raise $41 million more a year.

Reactions from some student leaders were mixed.

• Eduardo Tapia Jr-Urbieta, executive officer for the UC Student Association, during a UC regents committee meeting Wednesday: “Opportunity to higher education should not face any more barriers. Instead of increasing the salaries of UC administrators, let’s make sure college is more affordable for all.”

Learn more about the UC’s budget plans in Mikhail’s story.

The CEO at California’s largest public pension fund is earning more than $1 million a year, thanks to a big bonus awarded in September. Her counterpart at the state teachers’ fund received a $650,000 bonus last week to also join the million-dollar club. And she’s not the only one: Find out who else from CalMatters deputy editor Adam Ashton.