California congressional Republicans bank on Newsom unpopularity

Gov. Gavin Newsom easily survived a recall attempt in 2021, then overwhelmingly won re-election a year later. 

But his approval rating dropped to a low point by November 2023, and hasn’t recovered. Californians remain divided on his job performance (49% approval, 48% disapproval in a September Public Policy Institute of California survey).

Republicans in the Legislature trash Newsom and his policies all the time. Now some Republicans, trying to keep their seats in Congress, are trying to tie their Democratic opponents to the governor. 

One example: In a new ad out Tuesday, GOP Rep. Ken Calvert attacks Democrat Will Rollins on taxes by citing Newsom. “He’s slick, loves taxes and more liberal than Gavin Newsom,” the narrator says as an image of Newsom’s face changes into Rollins’.

• The narrator: “We can’t stop Gavin Newsom, but we can stop radical Will Rollins.”

Calvert and Rollins are contesting the 41st District in the Inland Empire, one of California’s swing congressional races that could help decide control of Congress. In the Sacramento-area 3rd District, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley has an ad seeking to link his Democratic challenger, Jessica Morse, to Newsom and rising home insurance and utility rates. 

Newsom isn’t directly campaigning for Democrats in swing districts in the Central Valley, where he’s even less popular. In part, the Republicans are using Newsom’s unpopularity, particularly among GOP voters, to counter Democrats’ attempts to use abortion rights to motivate Democratic voters.

A Newsom political spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S. Senate: If you’re wondering why California’s U.S. Senate race appears twice on your ballot, a reminder: There are two separate elections — one to pick the person who will serve out the unexpired term until early January, and the second to choose the person for the full six-year term. 

It’s likely that the winner of the first contest will be sworn into office as soon as the results are certified, giving them a head start on seniority over other new U.S. senators elected in November. If you go by the polls, that’ll be Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, who has a substantial lead over Republican Steve Garvey. 

The current officeholder, Laphonza Butler, was appointed by Gov. Newsom after the death of Dianne Feinstein last October, but quickly decided not to run.

Call it part of Gov. Newsom’s “Plan B” in case Donald Trump is president again.

Based on Newsom’s experience in Trump’s first term — plus repeated Trump threats to withhold federal wildfire aid unless California follows his water policy — the governor is considering a contingency account if Trump is back in the White House and follows through.

The money would be used in response to disasters, including fires and floods, reports Politico. Newsom said he’s talking to officials in preparation for his January budget reveal.

He didn’t give a dollar figure, but the account would be on top of the state’s “rainy day” fund. About $4.9 billion was taken from that fund to help balance the 2024-25 state budget, and another $7.1 billion is to be withdrawn in 2025-26, leaving about $10.5 billion available. 

• Newsom, to Politico: “You could have multiple disasters stacking up … and you’re going to have serious cash flow issues. … You have massive fires that cost billions and billions of dollars, just for the debris removal, let alone the recovery.”

Trump has a history: A former aide said that during California’s deadly 2018 wildfires, Trump initially refused to give disaster aid, but changed his mind after staffers told him that there were more Trump voters in Orange County than there were in all of Iowa.

And this month at a rally in Coachella, Trump brought up Newsom’s refusal to allow farmers to take more water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta by saying that he wouldn’t “give you (Newsom) any of that fire money that we send you all the time.”

Calling it the state’s “largest field campaign,” a coalition of nine statewide community organizations have been reaching out to new and infrequent voters ahead of the election — now only two weeks away.

The Million Voters Project Action Fund announced today that roughly 7,500 canvassers knocked on doors and made calls to discuss housing, public safety and other issues in a $5.7 million effort funded in part by the nonprofit California Community Foundation. To date, the organization said it contacted more than 200,000 California voters, including those in low-income, minority, refugee and other underrepresented communities, as well as young voters and those who were formerly incarcerated.

The coalition, which is working with the Yes on Prop. 5 and No on Prop. 36 campaigns, also said it asked those voters about those ballot measures and found that 69% support Prop. 5, which would lower the voting threshold for local governments to borrow money; and 71% oppose Prop. 36, which would increase penalties for some drug and theft crimes.

A September poll (weighted to represent California’s entire electorate) by the Public Policy Institute of California, however, paints a different picture: Only 49% said they support Prop. 5, while just 26% were against Prop. 36.

This week, CalMatters continues to share versions of our “Prop. in a Minute” videos with viewers of our partner PBS SoCal. Watch the ones on Prop. 32 and Prop. 33.

SoCalMatters airs at 5:58 p.m. weekdays on PBS SoCal.